Environmental fragility scenario analysis in the Mato Grosso River Microbasin, Saquarema (RJ)

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19180/2177-4560.v20n12026p186-202

Keywords:

Geographic Information System, Environmental risk, Predictive scenario, Disaster risk reduction, River microbasin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of environmental fragility and predicts future scenarios for the Mato Grosso River Micro-watershed in Saquarema (RJ, Brazil), an area vulnerable to natural disasters. Using open data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), potential fragility was estimated through natural variables (geology, soils, slope, and rainfall), while emergent fragility was assessed based on land-use changes between 2010 and 2020. The variables were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and integrated using fuzzy logic. The 2030 projection, based on Markov Chains, revealed that 18.7% of the micro-watershed (6.1 km²) presents a critical overlap of high fragility, landslide and flood susceptibility, and social vulnerability, forming socio-environmental risk hotspots. The results, analyzed through the lens of census tracts and the Saquarema Master Plan, highlight the urgent need for public policies focused on environmental conservation, Nature-based Solutions, and fragility mitigation. This study provides technical support for policymakers and researchers to transition from a reactive disaster response to a proactive culture of climate adaptation.

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Author Biographies

  • Vitor Ottoni Pastore, Fundação de Apoio a Escola Técnica
    Biologist (UNIRIO), master and doctor in Geography (UERJ). Professor Docent I of Environment and Biology at FAETEC.
  • Vivian Castilho da Costa, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
    Doutorado em Programa de Pós Graduação em Geografia pela Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.Professora Associada da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

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Published

02-09-2026

Issue

Vol. 20 No. 1 (2026): Boletim do Observatório Ambiental - IFF

Section

Original articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Vitor Ottoni Pastore, Vivian Castilho da Costa

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How to Cite

Environmental fragility scenario analysis in the Mato Grosso River Microbasin, Saquarema (RJ). Boletim do Observatório Ambiental Alberto Ribeiro Lamego, [S. l.], v. 20, n. 1, p. 186–202, 2026. DOI: 10.19180/2177-4560.v20n12026p186-202. Disponível em: https://editoraessentia.iff.edu.br/index.php/boletim/article/view/23682.. Acesso em: 6 sep. 2026.